There are a few unwritten rules when it comes to determining who we support when watching a game. It’s easy if we have some sympathy for one of the two teams. Or alternatively, if we have an aversion to one of the two opponents. But what if we don’t have any connection with either team A or team B? Research shows that people follow a group dynamic when it comes to this. If people we watch a game with, and who we also like, are particularly emotionally involved in the game, we easily take their side. However, if we watch the game completely alone, something quite remarkable happens. Our hearts automatically beat for the clear underdog — a tendency that mirrors the appeal of sports betting freedom beyond GamStop, where players seek alternatives that offer more flexibility, independence, and personal choice in how they engage with their favorite sports.
It’s these stories of little David bringing down the great Goliath that simply play a role in our socialization in this or countless other variations. It’s practically exactly why Hollywood films continue to fill cinemas around the world. A sympathetic underdog faces an overwhelming opponent and somehow manages to hold his own in this seemingly unequal duel. There’s something of Leicester City’s championship win in the 2015/16 English Premier League season in play here. A kind of modern football fairytale. And what also resonates in this context is the punter who then emerges, having bet on precisely this unlikely scenario and now stands to cash handsomely. Back then, a few Foxes fans actually placed a small to medium-sized bet on their favorite club winning the championship, which had astronomical odds of 5001.00 with bookmakers. The stories of the fans who made a killing off this are downright infamous. At the same time, no one talks about the sports bettors at non GamStop bookmakers who regularly bet small to medium sums on unrealistic events and lose all their money.
So, which one is better? Betting on the favorites or the underdogs in the Premier League? We’ve devoted our extensive attention to this very question in today’s sports betting guide. We’ll show you what’s important when betting on the favorites or underdogs in the elite echelons of British football, and we’ll highlight the advantages and disadvantages of each type of bet. Ultimately, which suits you better will likely also be a matter of personality. To be clear: a sports betting strategy focused on long-term and sustainable profit is possible for the Premier League with both options.
Betting on favorites at non GamStop bookmakers – what you need to know?
Favorite bets involve betting on the team with significantly lower odds to win. If both teams are offered at odds above 2.00, then neither team is truly favored. However, if Team A’s win is priced at 1.10 to 1.50, while Team B has high odds of 2 or even 3, 4, or 5, the situation is clear.
The advantages of betting on favorites at non GamStop bookmakers
The biggest advantage of betting on favorites is, logically, that the majority of these bets actually pay off in the end . Although it’s the underdog victories that ultimately stick in people’s minds, the odds favorites still prevail in most cases. The winnings, however, remain fairly manageable, since with the odds on a favorite, you can’t even double your stake. Thus, while regular winnings are guaranteed with favorite bets, only relatively small jumps are possible per winning bet.
However, this can be offset by another advantage: Favorite bets can be played with significantly higher stakes, although money management should not be neglected in this context. Because the probability of a favorite winning bet is extremely high, these bets can be played with a correspondingly high number of units, which can make a big difference depending on your bankroll. Favorite bets are rarely played with less than 8 units, however.
Another advantage is that betting on favorites is extremely friendly for beginners. Those who don’t yet feel capable of analyzing a game down to the smallest detail can ultimately rely on gut feeling when betting on favorites. Because it’s usually quickly clear who the favorites are in a clear distribution of roles.
100% odds = minimum probability of occurrence required for this to be a value bet
For example, let’s say you want to bet on a home win for FC Bayern Munich in the Premier League, against a heavy underdog. The odds should therefore be somewhere between 1.05 and 1.20. For clarity, let’s say 1.10. The calculation is now:
100% 1.10 = 90.9%
In other words, only if the probability of this Bayern victory is 91% or higher would this be a favorite bet with a positive expected value. While this is relatively easy to answer intuitively, it immediately leads us to the first disadvantage of betting on favorites in the Premier League.
The disadvantages of betting on favorites at non GamStop bookmakers
Because most tipsters tend to overestimate the odds of the supposed favorite. Does a 90.9% probability of a home win really seem realistic? Let’s take a quick look at the Reds’ home record over the last five seasons.
- 2017/18: 14 wins, two draws, one defeat = 82.3%
- 2016/17: 13 wins, four draws, no defeats = 76.5%
- 2015/16: 15 wins, one draw, one loss = 88.2%
- 2014/15: 14 wins, one draw, two defeats = 82.3%
- 2013/14: 15 wins, one draw, one loss = 88.2%
We’re talking, mind you, about seasons in which Manchester United won the British championship by a significant margin at the end of each season and suffered just five home defeats. And yet, the average 90.9% was not reached, which proves how difficult it is to consistently place this type of favorite bet at comparatively low odds.
Here’s a very clear illustration:
- You bet 17 times exactly ten euros on Bayern’s home win at odds of 1.10
- You win 14 times, which means exactly 14 euros net profit (10 euros stake x 1.10 = 11 euros = 1 euro profit
- 3x you lose = 30 Euro stake is lost
- The bottom line is a loss of 16 euros
Of course, the odds for a Manchester United win aren’t just 1.10 17 times this season, and you won’t be able to place this bet with exactly ten pounds each time. However, in the final analysis, it’s questionable whether you can actually make a profit by betting exclusively on the favorites for the British record champions and similar heavyweights. If you include away games, you’ll hardly find a top European club with a win rate of over 80%. Even for top teams like Juventus, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, or Manchester City, the overall win rate after a full season has recently been in the 75-80% range. This means that one out of every four or five games is always lost. If the winning bets that have been won in the meantime don’t generate sufficient profits to offset these “outliers,” then these are favorite bets with no value.
In summary: Favorite bets can be very tricky, especially for beginners, who are easily tempted by the regular, but small, winnings to place such a bet on a regular basis. However, mathematics is rarely on your side here, which is why calculating the required minimum probability of occurrence for a value bet should be the absolute minimum you should use for your analysis. If this value is over 80%, you can’t necessarily assume it’s a true value bet, even in crystal-clear comparisons. So, what at first glance appears to be an easy way to make a few euros on the side often turns out to be mathematical carelessness that will almost certainly result in losses .
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